Statistical analysis of the 4.4% immigration target for French-speaking immigrants in Francophone minority communities: Almost 20 years after setting the target, it is time to do more and do better (2021)
The Francophone Immigration Continuum
- Promotion to and recruitment of candidates for permanent residence
- Selection and admission of French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec (Focus of the 4.4% Francophone immigration target outside Quebec and of our study)
- Retention and integration of French-speaking permanent residents into Francophone minority communities
Why 4.4%?
The target of 4.4% Francophone immigration matched and sought to maintain the demographic weight of the French-speaking population outside
Quebec from the 2001 Census. (The demographic weight of the French-speaking population outside Quebec was 4.4% in the 2001 Census, according both to mother tongue and to first official language spoken.)
Note: Our statistical analysis uses the 2006 definition of a French-speaking immigrant, since it has served as a reference for monitoring and reporting for the longest time span (2006−2016).
Which Factors Can Impact Demographic Weight?
- International immigration
- Migration between regions
- Birth rates and population aging
- Language transmission and use between and among generations
A Key Factor that the Government Can Influence Significantly
The level and composition of immigration according to language.
Meeting the 4.4% Target: Not Enough to Maintain Demographic Weight
Our main finding:
Even if the federal target of 4.4% Francophone immigration had been met since the original 2008 target deadline, it would not have been enough to maintain the demographic weight of the Francophone minority population at 4.4%. However, it could have helped to reduce the decline between the 2001 and 2016 censuses.
Table: Demographic weight of the French-speaking population (based on first official language spoken) according to the 2001 and 2016 censuses, and estimated impact on that weight had the target been reached in 2008, Canada outside Quebec
- Actual demographic weight according to the 2001 Census: 4.4%
- Actual demographic weight according to the 2016 Census: 3.8%
- Estimated demographic weight in the 2016 Census if the target had been reached in 2008: 4.0%
Timeline: The 4.4% Francophone Immigration Target
2001
- The French-speaking population outside Quebec represents 4.4% of the Canadian population outside Quebec.
- The Immigration and Refugee Protection Act is modified to include supporting and assisting the development of official language minority communities in Canada.
2003
- The 4.4% French-speaking immigration target is adopted with a 2008 deadline in the Strategic Framework to Foster Immigration to Francophone Minority Communities, developed jointly between the federal government and these communities.
- French-speaking immigrants are defined and measured for the first time as those whose mother tongue is French or those with a knowledge of French only or of English and French. (Those whose mother tongue is French or a language other than English or French but who have a knowledge of French, i.e., self-declared ability to communicate in French only or in English and French). This tended to overestimate the numbers of French-speaking permanent residents admitted.
2006
- The Strategic Plan to Foster Immigration to Francophone Minority Communities, also developed jointly between the federal government and communities, is released. The 4.4% Francophone immigration target deadline is pushed from 2008 to 2023.
- French-speaking immigrants are now defined and measured as those whose mother tongue is French or those for whom French is their first official language of usage. (Those whose mother tongue is either French or a language other than English or French but for whom French is their first Canadian official language of usage according to their knowledge of French, i.e., self-declared ability to communicate in French only, excluding English and French).
- This tended to underestimate the numbers of French-speaking permanent residents admitted, but has served as a reference for monitoring and reporting for the longest period so far (2006-2016).
2016
- French-speaking immigrants are now defined and measured as those for whom French is their first official language of usage. Those for whom French is their first Canadian official language of usage according to:
- their knowledge of French (i.e., self-declared ability to communicate in French only or in English and French) and
- for those who are able to communicate in English and French, their response of French as their first Canadian official language of usage (i.e., in answer to a new question on the permanent resident application about the official language in which they are the most at ease).
- This definition and measure are considered to produce more inclusive and accurate data. However, data is available starting only in 2019.
2019
- In 2019, before the pandemic in 2020, French-speaking permanent residents admitted represented 2.1% of all permanent residents admitted outside Quebec, according to the 2006 definition and measure. According to the 2016 definition and measure, this group accounted for 2.7% of all permanent residents admitted to Canada outside Quebec.
Shortfall Between Number of French-Speaking Permanent Residents Admitted and Total Needed to Meet 4.4% Between 2008 and 2020
- Total number of French-speaking permanent residents admitted outside Quebec: 49,853
- Total number of French-speaking permanent residents needed to meet 4.4% Francophone immigration outside Quebec: 125,692
- Total shortfall of French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec: 75,839
The Road Ahead: Toward a New, Higher Francophone Immigration Target (2023)
- Adopt a new and higher target with expected results in the short, medium and long term.
- Set clear objectives based on a complete analysis of factors that affect demographic weight.
- Identify and develop support for success: Accountability measures, strategies, tools and an immigration policy for Francophone minority communities.
Quote from Raymond Théberge, Commissioner of Official Languages
“Francophone immigration is key to ensuring the sustainability of French linguistic minority communities across Canada who are keen to attract, welcome and support newcomers. It is time to do more and do better. We need a new, clear objective and a higher Francophone immigration target to help ensure a healthy future for these communities.”